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TWITTER | @martingruner

    17.4.10

    Drugs and Income Inequality

    I just found someting interesting in Richard Wilkinson and Kate Picketts awesome book — which you should read! — The Spirit Level. For those who haven't read the book, it's basically an argument, with substantial empirical evidence, that income inequality within a country is a much better predictor for the health of that society than anything else, above a certain minimum standard which guarantees physical well-being. This goes for any number of kinds of social well-being: physical and mental health, teen pregnancy, social trust, obesity, violence, crime ... and drug use, which is what I'm going to focus on here.

    But in short, what this means is that the primary goal of capitalist economies — growing the economy, achieving a greater GDP, a rising tide lifts all boats, etc. etc — is just not the right place to start. Once you get above a minimum standard of living, where all people have enough food, a place to live, decent and universal healthcare, and so forth, there's not that much national income increase does for life expectancy (the graph looks like this). After that, you should focus on reducing the gap between the richest and the poorest. Making the poor a little bit richer and the rich a little bit poorer is quite simply great policy — and, surprisingly, not just for the poor (which would have been enough for me, since there are way more of them)! The lowering of income inequality turns out to benefit all strata of the population. Even the richest people in a more equal society like Norway are healthier than the vastly more rich people in unequal societies like the US, the UK or Portugal.

    This is research with enormous implications for policy across the world. For a short version of their argument, I recommend this riveting one hour-talk in seven parts by Wilkinson and Pickett. Possibly the lecture I've seen with the greatest number of graphs relative to the wow-this-is-actually-interesting-factor. Here are the videos: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.

    So anyway, about those drugs. At one point (p. 71 in my edition), Wilkinson and Pickett have a graph showing, as it does with all the social unhealth factors they discuss, that there is a fairly linear relationship between drug use and inequality. Very unequal countries have very high drug use levels, and very equal countries have very low levels.



    A few interesting things jump out from the graph. The first is that Wilkinson and Pickett are probably right that there is some form of causal relationship between the two factors.

    The second is that there are a couple of interesting outliers. Australia has a lot more drug users than it "should" have. Portugal and Greece have much fewer. My own country Norway, despite being a very equal country, has a drug problem: we have an incidence of drug abuse roughly the same as very unequal Portugal. My other country, Denmark, also does. This coincides with our unbelievably high incidence of heroin addicts, so dramatic that the New York Times covered it, particularly in Oslo, Bergen and Haugesund.

    The third is that while there are a number of countries for which the function of the average (the line through the graph) is a good predictor of actual results, two countries stand out as being completely accurately predicted by the average line.

    These countries are the USA and Netherlands. Those two countries are very interesting, drug policy-wise. One represents the world's laxest drug policy, the other represents the most draconian policy in the developed world, going so far in the War on Drugs as to fund low-intensity conflicts in Latin America and to imprison a greater proportion of their population than literally any other country on Earth, in order to decrease drug use.

    What could possibly explain the fact that both these policies, so radical and so radically different, have zero effect on their country's place on the abuse scale? Well, golly, I don't know. But I have a suggestion.

    I suspect that the function of the average in this chart in fact represents the normal, "background" amount of drug abuse in the developed world. And that the reason these two countries are right on top of it is that their policies are zero-effect policies.

    The Netherlands outlaws "hard drugs" like heroin and legalises "soft drugs" like cannabis. Both kinds of drugs are included in the Wilkinson/Pickett graph's x-axis. Studies show that soft drug use in the Netherlands is roughly the same as in other countries, but without many of the attendant social problems. Hard drug use is slightly higher for a number of reasons, but because of treatment programs, this problem is fairly well contained.

    The US, on the other hand, has aggressively irrational policy against drug use. It has been well-documented that the War on Drugs actually drives a negative dynamic in which more drugs become available, more people use them and more people sell them. Despite one million people going to jail every year for drug crimes (225.000 for cannabis-related crimes), the drug market equalises back to zero. The war on drugs, paradoxically, subsidises the drug industry. Because they push back so hard, the very unequal US cancel out their own anti-drug policy and end right back up where they started, with a high incidence of drug abuse. In the meantime, a lot of people suffer and die because of the draconian policy.

    So let's go back to the outliers. The one I'm really interested in is Portugal. It's an enormously unequal country, with bad results on a lot of other indexes of social health — but not on this one. Why not? Why does really unequal Portugal have equal drug abuse levels as very equal Norway? Well, Portugal has decriminalized drug use. From a great white paper on Portugal's drug laws by blogger and lawyer Glenn Greenwald:
    While drug addiction, usage, and associated pathologies continue to skyrocket in many EU states, those problems—in virtually every relevant category—have been either contained or measurably improved within Portugal since 2001. In certain key demographic segments, drug usage has decreased in absolute terms in the decriminalization framework, even as usage across the EU continues to increase, including in those states that continue to take the hardest line in criminalizing drug possession and usage.

    By freeing its citizens from the fear of prosecution and imprisonment for drug usage, Portugal has dramatically improved its ability to encourage drug addicts to avail themselves of treatment. The resources that were previously devoted to prosecuting and imprisoning drug addicts are now available to provide treatment
    programs to addicts. Those developments, along with Portugal’s shift to a harm-reduction approach, have dramatically improved drugrelated social ills, including drug-caused mortalities and drug-related disease transmission. Ideally, treatment programs would be strictly voluntary, but Portugal’s program is certainly
    preferable to criminalization.

    The Portuguese have seen the benefits of decriminalization, and therefore there is no serious political push in Portugal to return to a criminalization framework. Drug policymakers in the Portuguese government are virtually unanimous in their belief that decriminalization has enabled a far more effective approach to managing Portugal’s addiction problems and other drug-related afflictions. Since the available data demonstrate that they are right, the Portuguese model ought to be carefully considered by policymakers around the world.
    It seems, given these data, that the proper way to combat drug abuse and drugs as a social problem is two-pronged. On the one hand, combating income inequality which has benefits across society, and moving towards decriminalisation and treatment like Portugal and the Netherlands have done.

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    On a completely unrelated note: I joined something called The Amazon Affiliates Program. Basically what that means is that if you click the link to The Spirit Level here or above, and you buy the book from Amazon after clicking that link, I get 15 % of the revenue in Amazon gift cards. So if you're thinking about buying The Spirit Level anyway, if you do it through this website, you can give me a little something.

    This is the first time in – oh, God, I'm old – seven whole years of blogging that I've done anything to monetize this site. And while I do it with some trepidation, I don't think this changes the basic proposition of my blog which is that I write about what I want to write about (In this case, The Spirit Level). Though I do now feel compelled to link to Amazon.com in every single post I write.

    No, not really. It was actually the other way around: I've been thinking for a long time that responding to what you are reading in writing is important, and it's something I haven't done enough, and want to do more of in this space. So given that my blog might go in that direction, and I noticed that I was going to link to The Spirit Level anyway in this post — because I am earnest in my wish that more people read The Spirit Level — I figured this might be a good time to put the Amazon affiliates thing in place, which I've thought about doing for a long time.

    But lord knows I'm not going to get a lot of money out of this. My hope is that it gives me a little extra incentive to keep the blog going, and a little bit of return for what I want to do here anyway. Even though it makes me a complete and utter sell-out.

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    20.5.09

    Oslopolitiets nye narkostrategi: "tilbake til 60-tallet!"

    Hvor dypt skuffende og foruroligende er det ikke at Oslo-politiet nå "erklærer krig" mot ... marihuana? 

    Dette er så grensesprengende, hårreisende dumt at man nesten ikke kan ta det alvorlig. Hør hva Kåre Stølen, stasjonssjef på Grønland politistasjon, sier: 

    Det er allerede gitt bøter i 10000 kronersklassen for slike forbrytelser. I verste fall kan folk som blir tatt for slikt kjøp, miste omsorg for barn.
    –Ja, ett av våre virkemidler er å sende bekymringsmelding til barnevernet når vi kommer over foreldre som kjøper narkotika. Så får de vurdere om folk som har så lemfeldig omgang med rusmidler, er skikket til å ha omsorg for barn, sier stasjonssjef Kåre Stølen ved Grønland politistasjon.

    Han maner til krig mot narkotikasalget i Oslo, og han vil ikke la kjøperne slippe billig.
    –Det er viktig å ta dem. Forsvinner kjøperne, er det ikke penger å tjene for selgerne, da forsvinner markedet. Det er vårt mål. Derfor kommer vi til å slå knallhardt ned på kjøpere.
    –Å kjøpe litt hasj er da ganske udramatisk?
    –Er det? Spør de slitne brukerne utenfor Oslo S hvor de begynte. Alle begynte med hasj og svakere stoffer! I tillegg er hasjsalget med på å finansiere organisert kriminalitet. Og ettersom det sprer seg inn i bomiljøer og til skoler og ungdomsklubber, ødelegger det nærmiljø. Derfor er det ikke udramatisk å kjøpe narkotika.
    Så for å oppsummere:

    (a) Vi går tilbake til å angripe narkotikaproblemet ved å føre krig mot brukerne. Kjempemessig! Det funket jo så bra i USA! Her er statistikken som viser den enorme suksessen fra landet som på grunn av sin narkopolitikk – i likhet med den nye Oslo-politikken også beskrevet som en "krig mot narkotika" – fengsler en større andel av sin befolkning enn noe annet land på planeten:

    YEAR | MARIJUANA ARRESTS
    1992 | 342,314
    1993 | 380,689
    1994 | 499,122
    1995 | 588,963
    1996 | 641,642
    1997 | 695,200
    1998 | 682,885
    1999 | 704,812
    2000 | 734,498
    2001 | 723,627

    Dette viser tydelig at det amerikanske politiet tar en større og større andel av forbryterne hvert år! Snart har de vel tatt alle? Forresten heter et av underoverskriftene på Wikipediasiden for the War on Drugs "war on drugs as cyclic creation of a permanent underclass". En annen heter "war victims".

    (b) Vi skal nok en gang skape et regelverk som under mindre demokratisk orienterte regjeringer – la oss si en Frp-regjering – kan brukes til når som helst å frata foreldreretten eller arrestere opptil 40 % av hovedstadens befolkning:
    Nær hver tredje nordmann har gjort som Ap-leder [Nå statsminister, bloggers anm.] Jens Stoltenberg: De har brukt hasj. Og det er flere femtiåringer som har prøvd enn
    tenåringer. Det viser en ny undersøkelse gjort for Dagsavisen.

    (...)

    Oslo er det fylket der hasj er mest utbredt. 4 av 10 i hovedstaden har prøvd hasj. På landsbasis har tre av ti forsøkt viser en ny meningsmåling gjort av Visendi A/S for Dagsavisen.
    ("Hver tredje nordmann har prøvd å røyke hasj", Dagsavisen, 25.11.2006
    (c) Vi har visst ennå ikke helt klart å gjøre koblingen mellom at hasj drives av organisert kriminalitet og det faktum at hasj er ulovlig, til tross for at det ikke er påvist noen helsemessigeeffekter som er drøyere enn alkohol.

    (d) Tilbake til "skråplanteorien"! Hurra!

    There is no conclusive evidence that the drug effects of marijuana are causally linked to the subsequent abuse of other illicit drugs.
    Janet E. Joy, Stanley J. Watson, Jr., and John A Benson, Jr., "Marijuana and Medicine: Assessing the Science Base," Division of Neuroscience and Behavioral Research, Institute of Medicine (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1999).

    Our key findings were that 1) there are no unique factors distinguishing the gateway sequence and the reverse sequence — that is, the sequence is opportunistic; 2) the gateway sequence and the reverse sequence have the same prognostic accuracy; and 3) a sizable proportion of substance users begin regular consumption with an illicit drug. These results, considered in the aggregate, indicate that the gateway sequence is not an invariant pathway and, when manifest, is not related to specific risk factors and does not have prognostic utility. The results of this study as well as other studies demonstrate that abusable drugs occupy neither a specific place in a hierarchy nor a discrete position in a temporal sequence. These latter presumptions of the gateway hypothesis constitute what Whitehead referred to as the 'fallacy of misplaced connectedness,' namely, asserting 'assumptions about categories that do not correspond with the empirical world.'

    Source: Tarter, Ralph E., PhD, Vanyukov, Michael, PhD, Kirisci, Levent, PhD, Reynolds, Maureen, PhD, Clark, Duncan B., MD, PhD, "Predictors of Marijuana Use in Adolescents Before and After Licit Drug Use: Examination of the Gateway Hypothesis," American Journal of Psychiatry, Vol. 63, No. 12, December 2006, p. 2139.

    The gateway hypothesis holds that abusable drugs occupy distinct ranks in a hierarchy as well as definite positions in a temporal sequence. Accordingly, substance use is theorized to progress through a sequence of stages, beginning with legal, socially acceptable compounds that are low in the hierarchy, followed by use of illegal 'soft' and later 'hard' drugs ranked higher in the hierarchy. One of the main findings of this study is that there is a high rate of nonconformance with this temporal order. In a neighborhood where there is high drug availability, youths who have low parental supervision are likely to regularly consume marijuana before alcohol and/or tobacco. Consumption of marijuana prior to use of licit drugs thus appears to be related to contextual factors rather than to any unique characteristics of the individual. Moreover, this reverse pattern is not rare; it was observed in over 20% of our sample.

    Source: Tarter, Ralph E., PhD, Vanyukov, Michael, PhD, Kirisci, Levent, PhD, Reynolds, Maureen, PhD, Clark, Duncan B., MD, PhD, "Predictors of Marijuana Use in Adolescents Before and After Licit Drug Use: Examination of the Gateway Hypothesis," American Journal of Psychiatry, Vol. 63, No. 12, December 2006, p. 2138.
    Selv mistenker jeg at om det finnes noen kausalrelasjon mellom marihuanabruk og la oss si heroin, så har det noe å gjøre med det faktum at man må komme i kontakt med kriminelle miljøer for å kjøpe marihuana – fordi det er ulovlig, dummkopf.

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